Since 2018, the overall performance of the domestic base oil market has been tepid. The traditional peak season for March and April has been flat. From March 2018 to the first half of April, the atmosphere of the domestic base oil market was gloomy, and the market price was stable and wait-and-see. Large-area price increases were expected to be temporarily unsatisfactory. From the downstream perspective, the enthusiasm for reconciling companies for stocking is poor. According to statistics, as of April 17, 2018, the price range of Type II 150N was around 6400-6600 yuan/ton, and it had fallen by 200 yuan/ton during the higher period. What are the influencing factors? Crude oil turbulence trend boosts the effect is not good At present, the air strikes on 105 missiles launched by the United States, Britain and France, led by the U.S., Britain, and the French Federation, did not have a clear positive effect on Monday's international oil market. On the contrary, due to the caution of investors in the Middle East, the oil price continued to be under pressure on Monday. Industry insiders believe that in the future, any move in oil prices to 80 US dollars/barrel will be integrated by multiple factors, not just Syria’s CW problem. Other factors include the response of Syrian government forces, Iran, and the Russian strategic alliance to the United States, the development of Iran’s nuclear agreement, and whether the United States will impose tougher sanctions on this Middle East oil producing country. Crude oil movements are the main shocks. Although crude oil prices have fluctuated at high levels in recent days, in the short term, crude oil prices are expected to remain strong in the near future. WTI pressured oil prices due to the recovery of Cushing stocks and the market's concern about the rapid growth of shale oil production. In terms of domestic base oil, although crude oil has risen to a high level in recent years, given the weak market, the boost effect has been very limited. Oversupply Significantly Diluted Base Oil Resources Since the beginning of this year, domestically produced oil, non-standard oil, and recycled base oil production refineries have suffered significant pressure on their inventories, and shipping conditions have been poor. One type of base oil has obviously exceeded supply, and refineries have been eliminating the inventory in recent months. Dealing with profit mainly. Up to now, the mainstream price of 150 SN has dropped to 5100-5200 yuan/ton. Since March 2018, the downstream digestion of Class I and II base oil has been slow, and import resource traders lowered their quotation to stimulate shipments. Under the adverse circumstances of imported oil external disk market conditions, the domestic resources trend is weak and difficult to change. Demand sluggishly dragged down market performance As of the beginning of April 2018, the surge in the price of lubricant oil has come. Great Wall, Meifu, Longxi and other more than 20 terminal lubricant brands have announced price adjustments, ranging from 3% to 8%. However, there is no large-scale price adjustment for the base oil market for a short period of time. Downstream demand, access capacity, and digestion capacity are still constraining the market to pick up. In addition, since late March, environmental inspections in the northern part of Shandong Province have been carried out one after another. Many small and medium-sized enterprises are facing rectification or closure. Production has stopped, raw material purchases have decreased, and the impact on the base oil market has been self-evident. The news is difficult to boost and the oversupply and sluggish demand will still be a certain resistance to the recovery of the base oil. Refineries and import traders suffered downward pressure and lowered prices to stimulate shipments. The market price advantage of the base oil market will be extremely important.
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In 2018, the overall performance of the domestic base oil market was tepid
